Battery Trends - Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023 - Analysis - IEA (2023)

Demand for automotive lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries grows by around 65%, from around 330 GWh in 2021 to 550 GWh in 2022, mainly due to growth in passenger electric vehicle sales, with new registrations growing in 2022 compared to 2022. 55% in 2021.

In China, where demand for automotive batteries is growing by more than 70%, EV sales are expected to grow 80% in 2022 compared to 2021. Battery demand growth is slightly tempered by increasing PHEV participation. While EV sales will only increase about 55% in 2022, the demand for batteries in American cars will increase about 80%. While the average pure electric vehicle battery size in the US will only increase by about 7% in 2022, the average electric vehicle battery capacity is still about 40% larger than the global average, partly due to the involvement of SUVs. in US EV sales larger than other large markets,1And the manufacturer's strategies to offer a greater autonomy of fully electric driving. Global sales of BEVs and PHEVs are outpacing hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and demand for batteries is growing further due to larger battery sizes for BEVs and PHEVs.

Battery demand by mode of operation 2016-2022

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Demand for batteries by region 2016-2022

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Rising demand for batteries is driving demand for key materials. Lithium will remain in short supply until 2022 (as it was in 2021), despite a 180% increase in lithium production since 2017. In 2022, about 60% of lithium demand, 30% of cobalt and 10% nickel will be used in electric vehicle batteries. Just five years ago, in 2017, these shares were around 15%, 10% and 2%, respectively. As we saw with lithium, extraction and processing of these critical minerals will need to scale up rapidly to support the energy transition, not just for electric vehicles, but more broadly to keep pace with demand for clean energy technologies.2Reducing the demand for critical materials is also important for the sustainability, resilience and security of the supply chain. Accelerating innovation can help, for example, through advanced battery technologies that require smaller amounts of critical minerals, as well as supporting the adoption of car models with optimized battery sizes and the development of battery recycling.

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Total battery cobalt supply and demand by industry from 2016 to 2022

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The total supply and demand for lithium batteries in various industries from 2016 to 2022.

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Total supply and demand for nickel used in batteries by industry, 2016-2022.

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Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) will remain the dominant battery chemistry through 2022 with a 60% market share, followed by lithium iron phosphate (LFP) with a share of just under 30 %, nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) with a participation of around 8 %.

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode chemistry has achieved the largest share in the past decade. This trend is mainly due to the preferences of Chinese OEMs. About 95% of LFP batteries used in electric LDVs are used in vehicles made in China, with BYD alone accounting for 50% of the demand. Tesla accounts for 15%, and Tesla's share of lithium iron phosphate battery use will increase from 20% in 2021 to 30% in 2022. About 85% of lithium iron phosphate batteries produced by Tesla are made in China, with the rest being made in China and the United States using cells imported from China. Overall, only about 3% of LFP battery electric vehicles will be made in the US by 2022.

LFP batteries stand in contrast to other chemistries because they use iron and phosphorous instead of the nickel, manganese, and cobalt found in NCA and NMC batteries. One disadvantage of LFP is that the energy density tends to be lower than that of NMC. LFP batteries also contain phosphorus, which is used in food production. If all current batteries were LFP, they would account for almost 1% of the phosphorus currently used in mass agriculture, indicating a potential future conflict over phosphorus as demand for batteries increases.

Electric LDV battery capacity by chemical 2018-2022

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As for the anode, a series of chemical changes can increase the energy density (watt hours per kilogram or Wh/kg). For example, silicon could be used to replace all or part of the graphite in the anode to facilitate and therefore increase energy density. Silicon-doped graphite entered the market a few years ago and now about 30% of the negative electrode contains silicon. Another option is innovative lithium metal anodes, which could provide higher power density when commercialized.

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Material content of different anodes and cathodes.

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Alternatives to lithium ion batteries have appeared in recent years, especially sodium ion (Na-ion) batteries. This battery's chemistry has the double advantage of relying on materials that cost less than lithium-ion, making batteries cheaper while avoiding the need for critical minerals altogether. It is currently the only viable lithium-free chemistry. The price of China's CATL-developed sodium-ion batteries is expected to fall by 30%nowthan LFP batteries. By contrast, Na-ion batteries differ in energy density from their lithium-ion counterparts (i.e.,75arrive160Wh/kg compared to 120 to 260 Wh/kg). This could make the Na-ion suitable for lower-range urban vehicles or stationary storage, but could be more difficult to implement where consumers prioritize maximum-range autonomy or where charging is not available. Currently there are about 30 sodium ion battery factories in operation, planning and construction, with a total capacity of more than100 GWh, almost all in China. For comparison, current lithium-ion battery production capacity is around 1,500 GWh.

Several automobile manufacturers have launched sodium-ion electric vehicles such asGaleb's WORLD, with an advertised range of 300 km, priced at $11,600 (with a possible discount, the price drops to $9,500), and the Sehol EX10, made by the VW-JAC joint venture, with a range of 250 km. While these early models may be a bit more expensive than the cheapest small BEVs in China, like the Wuling Mini BEV,SellPriced as low as $5,000 to $6,500, they're still cheaper than equivalent options with similar mileage. For comparison, Wuling's Mini BEV has a range of 170km, but BYD's Dolphin BEV, the second best-selling small BEV in China in 2022, has a similar range to the advertised Na-ion car and cancarryMore than $15,000. As battery production grows, BYD plans to gradually integrate sodium-ion batteries into all its models under $29,000. These announcements suggest that sodium-ion electric vehicles will be sold and driven for the first time in 2023-2024, bringing the technology to a ready level (TRL3) from 8-9, among the first commercial and commercial operations in the relevant environment. it is in 2022rate itTRL6 (complete prototype) en IEAA guide to cleaning technology, highlighting the rapid technological advance compared to just the TRL3-4 (small prototypes) in the 2021 evaluation.

Changes in the cost and availability of key minerals may also explain some of the developments in battery chemistry in recent years. NMC chemistries (NMC333 or NMC111) using equal proportions of nickel, manganese, and cobalt were popular prior to 2015. Since then, rising cobalt prices and concerns about public acceptance of cobalt mining have fueled a shift towards lower cobalt ratios, such as NMC622 and then NMC811. but they are more difficult to produce. In 2022, nickel prices rose to a high of twice the 2015-2020 average. This encourages the use of chemicals less dependent on nickel, such as LFP, despite their lower energy density.

Lithium carbonate prices have also risen steadily over the past two years. In 2021, the price quadrupled or quintupled and continued to rise through 2022, nearly doubling between January 1, 2022, and January 1, 2023. As of early 2023, lithium prices are six times the 2015-average price. 2020. Unlike nickel and lithium, the price of manganese is relatively stable. One of the reasons for the rising prices of lithium, nickel and cobalt is that supply will exceed demand in 2021. While nickel and cobalt are in excess supply in 2022, lithium is not, which leads to stronger price increases in 2022. From January 2023 to March 2023, lithium prices will fall 20%, returning to end-2022 level. Expected 40% of portfolioincreaseA lack of supply and slowing demand growth, especially for electric vehicles in China, contributed to the trend. That decline, if sustained, could lead to lower battery prices.

In addition to these materials, world prices for raw materials have skyrocketed in recent years asresultFactors such as supply disruptions due to the Covid-19 pandemic, rising demand as the global economy begins to recover, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 are among other factors.

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Selected battery materials and lithium-ion battery prices, 2015-2023

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Average Battery Price Forecast in 2022stopAt about $150 per kilowatt-hour, battery pack manufacturing costs account for about 20 percent of the total cost of a battery, up from more than 30 percent a decade ago. Packaging manufacturing costs continue to decline over time, falling 5% in 2022 compared to the previous year. By contrast, battery manufacturing costs in 2022 increased from 2021, returning to 2019 levels. This can be partly explained by higher material prices (which make up a large part of battery prices) and higher electricity prices (affecting production costs), while improved efficiency in battery pack production helps reduce costs. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts a further decline in battery pack manufacturing costs, by about 20% by 2025, while cell manufacturing costs are down just 10% from their record lows in 2021. Material price trends.

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In 2022, the impact of rising battery material prices will vary by battery chemistry, with LFP batteries experiencing the largest increase (over 25%) and NMC batteries an increase of less than 15 %. Since LFP batteries are nickel and cobalt free and relatively expensive compared to iron and phosphorus, the price of lithium plays a relatively large role in determining the final cost. Since the price increase for lithium is higher than the price increase for nickel and cobalt, the price increase for LFP batteries is higher than the price increase for NMC batteries. Despite this, the specific energy capacity of LFP batteries is still lower than that of NCA and NMC.

Battery prices also vary between regions, with the lowest average price in China and the highest in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region. The reason for this price difference is that about 65% of the cells and almost 80% of the cathodes are made in China.


Battery Trends - Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023 - Analysis - IEA? ›

We currently expect to see 14 million in sales by the end of 2023, representing a 35% year-on-year increase with new purchases accelerating in the second half of this year. As a result, electric cars could account for 18% of total car sales across the full calendar year.

What is the IEA electric car outlook? ›

The new edition of the IEA's annual Global Electric Vehicle Outlook shows that more than 10 million electric cars were sold worldwide in 2022 and that sales are expected to grow by another 35% this year to reach 14 million.

What is the outlook for the electric battery industry? ›

The lithium-ion battery value chain is set to grow by over 30 percent annually from 2022-2030, in line with the rapid uptake of electric vehicles and other clean energy technologies.

What is the energy outlook for 2023 IEA? ›

We estimate that around USD 2.8 trillion will be invested in energy in 2023. More than USD 1.7 trillion is going to clean energy, including renewable power, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emission fuels, efficiency improvements and end-use renewables and electrification.

What is the outlook for electric cars in 2023? ›

We currently expect to see 14 million in sales by the end of 2023, representing a 35% year-on-year increase with new purchases accelerating in the second half of this year. As a result, electric cars could account for 18% of total car sales across the full calendar year.

Who is leading EV battery technology? ›

CATL is the leading brand in EV battery manufacturing, securing 34% of the market share.

What is the next EV battery technology? ›

The US Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory has developed a lithium-air battery that could significantly increase the range of electric vehicles. The new design could one day replace lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, and power cars, domestic airplanes and long-haul trucks.

What battery company is Bill Gates investing in? ›

Form Energy Inc., an energy-storage company backed by Bill Gates's Breakthrough Energy Ventures, is planning a $760 million factory in West Virginia, the latest plant announced in the aftermath of President Joe Biden's landmark climate law.

What is the IEA predicting about renewables? ›

Forecast summary

Global renewable capacity is expected to increase by almost 2 400 GW (almost 75%) between 2022 and 2027 in the IEA main-case forecast, equal to the entire installed power capacity of the People's Republic of China (hereafter “China”).

Will energy prices go down in 2023 usa? ›

The average electricity bill for households in the U.S. rose from $0.147 kWh in January 2022 to $0.168 per kWh in January 2023. Energy prices aren't likely to decrease, but the rapid increase from 2021 to 2022 may slow in 2023.

Who released the World Energy Transition Outlook 2023? ›

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) released its World Energy Transitions: Outlook 2023 report, highlighting the need for a more aggressive approach to transition towards renewable energy sources.

What is the projection for electric vehicles in 2025? ›

Electric-vehicle sales should top $50 billion in 2025, GM said. The Detroit-based company plans to build 400,000 EVs in North America from 2022 through the first half of 2024. Production capacity will reach 1 million units annually in North America in 2025.

Is 2023 a good year to buy a EV? ›

According to Kelley Blue Book (KBB), 2023 will see the arrival of 16 all-new models. Visual Capitalist projects that 134 EV models will be in production by 2024, up from 125 in 2023 and 100 in 2022. Also, the electric segment will be more accessible than ever in 2023 despite the effects of inflation.

What percent of cars are electric 2023? ›

This rapid growth means electric cars' percentage share of the overall car market is expected to climb to 18% in 2023.

Who is the second biggest battery EV players in US? ›

9 Top EV Stocks and Battery Companies
StockStock price as of March 28 market close
Tesla Inc. (ticker: TSLA)$189.19
Nio Inc. (NIO)$9.20
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN)$12.96
Ford Motor Co. (F)$11.60
5 more rows
Mar 29, 2023

Who is the second biggest battery EV? ›

LG Energy Solution

What company is building the forever battery? ›

In late 2021, QuantumScape illustrated that its forever battery performed in 4-layer formats up to 800 charging cycles. A quarter later, the company scaled successful results to 10-layer batteries up to 800 cycles.

What battery tech will replace lithium-ion? ›

Researchers at Vienna University of Technology have developed an oxygen-ion battery based on ceramic materials that has a longer lifespan than lithium-ion batteries. The new battery can be regenerated and does not require rare elements, making it an ideal solution for large energy storage systems.

What are 2 new batteries being developed for EV cars? ›

Also known as lithium ferrous phosphate (LFP) batteries, the type to be produced at the new plant are a lower-cost alternative to the nickel- and cobalt-containing batteries used in most electric vehicles in the US and Europe today.

What stock is the forever battery? ›

Solid Power (SLDP)

Forever battery stocks like Solid Power (NASDAQ:SLDP) are headed higher, too. For one, the U.S. Department of Energy just awarded the company over $5 million to develop its technology, “which could significantly help lower the price of EV batteries,” according to

Where does Elon get his batteries? ›

What company makes Tesla's batteries? Tesla is currently working with Japanese company Panasonic, its longtime partner, as well as South Korea's LG Energy Solutions, the second largest battery supplier in the world. They supply the EV maker with cells containing nickel and cobalt.

Does Elon Musk have a battery company? ›

Elon Musk's electric car company Tesla says it is expanding in China as it builds a new factory to make its large-scale batteries. The plant in Shanghai will be able to produce 10,000 of its "Megapack" energy storage units a year, the firm says.

What is the IEA energy Outlook 2050? ›

The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) is a normative IEA scenario that shows a pathway for the global energy sector to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, with advanced economies reaching net zero emissions in advance of others.

What is the IEA World energy Outlook for Renewables? ›

Over 2022-2027, renewables are seen growing by almost 2 400 GW in our main forecast, equal to the entire installed power capacity of China today. That's an 85% acceleration from the previous five years, and almost 30% higher than what was forecast in last year's report, making it our largest ever upward revision.

What is the outlook for renewable energy in 2025? ›

IEA: More than a third of the world's electricity will come from renewables in 2025.

What is the global hydrogen outlook IEA? ›

Global hydrogen demand reached 94 Mt in 2021, a 5% increase on demand in 2020, driven mainly by the recovery of activity in the chemical sector and refining.

What are the projected energy sources for 2030? ›

In the baseline scenario, structure of the installed capacity of generating sources by 2030 is as follows:
  • coal - 55%;
  • gas - 25%;
  • renewable energy, including hydroelectric power plants - 20%.
Feb 21, 2022

Who bought IEA? ›

MasTec Completes the Acquisition of Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc. MasTec, Inc. is a leading infrastructure construction company operating mainly throughout North America across a range of industries.

What is the new policies scenario for IEA? ›

In the IEA New Policies Scenario, China's coal demand will increase by 30% to over 2850 million tonnes per year by 2020 and stabilize above 2800 million tonnes until 2035 (Figure 1.8).

What is the IEA world energy outlook for Germany? ›

The country has adopted a strategy for an energy pathway to 2050, which includes an accelerated phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. In order to achieve the ambitious Energiewende by 2030 the goals are clear: half of all electricity supply will come from renewable energy sources and coal use will be phased out by 2038.

What percentage of energy will be renewable by 2050? ›

Note: Biofuels are both shown separately and are included in petroleum and other liquids. In our Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) Reference case, which reflects current laws and regulations, we project that the share of U.S. power generation from renewables will increase from 21% in 2021 to 44% in 2050.

What is the global final energy consumption IEA? ›

In 2019, world total electricity final consumption reached 22 848 TWh, up 1.7% from 2018. In 2019, OECD total electricity final consumption was 9 672 TWh, 1.1% lower than in 2018, while final electricity consumption in non-OECD countries was 13 176 TWh, an increase of 3.8% from 2018.

What is the IEA outlook for biofuels? ›

Forecast summary. Global demand for biofuels is set to grow by 41 billion litres, or 28%, over 2021-2026 in the main case. The recovery to pre-Covid-19 demand levels accounts for one-fifth of this demand growth.


1. Unpacking the IEA Global EV Outlook 2022: The India Story
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2. The IEA World Energy Outlook 2022 Report [Summary] - Is the Globe on Track for Decarbonisation?
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3. The Contradictions of Battery Operated Vehicles | Graham Conway | TEDxSanAntonio
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4. Electric News May 2023
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5. Introduction to Global EV Outlook 2020
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