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executive Summary
- executive Summary
- electric vehicle plan
- Development trend of light electric vehicles
- electric car
- electric car
- Emerging markets
- electric light commercial vehicle
- Two and three wheel electric vehicles
- Development trend of heavy electric vehicles.
- Trends in charging infrastructure
- battery trend
- policy development
- gift
- Electric Vehicle Supply Chain Development Policies
- Support for the policy of light electric vehicles
- Support policy for electric heavy trucks
- Support policy for electric vehicle charging infrastructure
- International initiatives and commitments
- Corporative strategy
- Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Initiatives for Electrification
- World consumption of electric vehicles
- Finance, venture capital and trading
- Prospects for the application of electric vehicles
- Electric mobility scenario
- The perspective of electric vehicles.
- Closing the implementation gap
- OEM targets and forecasts
- battery requirements
- charging infrastructure
- Impact on energy demand and emissions
dating report
International Energy Agency (2023),Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023, License: CC BY 4.0
report options
Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023. Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023
executive Summary
With sales exceeding 10 million units by 2022, the electric vehicle market is growing exponentially.Electric vehicles will account for 14% of all new car sales by 2022, up from 9% in 2021 and less than 5% in 2020. Three markets dominated global sales. China was once again the leader, with around 60% of global electric vehicle sales. More than half of the electric vehicles on the world's roads are now in China, which has surpassed its 2025 sales target for new energy vehicles. In Europe, the second largest market, electric car sales will increase by more than 15% in 2022, meaning that one in five cars sold will be electric. Electric vehicle sales in the United States, the third largest market, will increase between 55% and 8% of sales by 2022.
Electric vehicle sales are expected to remain strong through 2023.More than 2.3 million electric vehicles were sold in the first quarter, around 25% more than the previous year. We currently expect sales to reach 14 million by the end of 2023, up 35% year-over-year, with new purchases accelerating in the second half of the year. As a result, electric vehicles could account for 18% of total car sales for the entire calendar year. Government policies and incentives will help boost sales, while a return to last year's unusually high oil prices could further encourage potential buyers.
There are promising signs in the emerging electric vehicle (EV) market, albeit from a small base.Electric vehicle sales are generally low outside of major markets, but 2022 is a year of growth for India, Thailand and Indonesia. Taken together, EV sales in these countries more than tripled to 80,000 compared to 2021. For Thailand, the share of EVs in total sales will be just over 3% in 2022, while India and Indonesia they averaged about 1.5% last year. In India, the production of electrical vehicles and components is accelerating thanks to the government's $3.2 billion stimulus package, which attracted a total investment of $8.3 billion. Thailand and Indonesia are also stepping up their policy support programs, which could offer valuable lessons for other emerging market economies looking to boost EV adoption.
Market trends and policy efforts in major automotive markets support the good prospects for electric vehicle sales.According to the IEA's Stated Policy Scenario (STEPS), the global outlook for the share of EV sales based on existing policies and company goals has increased from less than 25% in the previous outlook to 35% by 2030. According to forecasts, China will maintain its position as the largest electric vehicle market until 2030, with a share of 40% of total STEPS sales. With recent policy announcements to boost demand, the US will double its market share to 20% by the end of the decade, while Europe maintains its current 25% share.
Demand for electric vehicles in major auto markets is expected to have a profound impact on energy markets and climate goals in the current policy environment.Under existing policies, STEPS expects road transport oil demand to peak around 2025 and electric vehicles to replace more than 5 million barrels of oil per day by 2030. In STEPS, emissions are around 700 MtCO2- By 2030, the use of electric vehicles will prevent the use of equivalents.
The European Union and the United States have enacted legislation to make their electrification ambitions a reality.The European Union has adopted a new CO2Cars and trucks that meet the 2030 targets set by the Fit for 55 program. In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), combined with the Advanced Clean Cars II rules adopted by several California states, is on track to reach 50% of the electric vehicle market share by 2030, in line with national targets. Implementation of recently proposed emission standards by the US Environmental Protection Agency will further increase this ratio.
Fueled by the promise of electric vehicles, battery production continues to expand.As of March 2023, the battery production capacity announced for delivery in 2030 is sufficient to meet the demand implicit in the government's commitment, and even to meet the demand for electric vehicles in the 2050 net-zero scenario. Therefore, the share of EV sales is likely to be higher than expected based on current government policies and national targets.
The global consumption of electric vehicles will exceed 425,000 million dollars in 2022, 50% more than in 2021.Only 10% of consumption can be attributed to government support, while the rest comes from consumers. Investors also continue to trust electric vehicles, Shares of EV-related companies have outperformed those of traditional automakers since 2019. Venture capital investment in startups developing battery and EV technology is also on the rise, reaching nearly $2.1 billion. by 2022, a 30% increase compared to 2021, with investments powering batteries and key minerals.
SUVs and large cars will dominate available EV options in 2022They account for 60% of the BEV options available in China and Europe, and an even larger share in the US, similar to the trend for SUVs in the internal combustion engine (ICE) car market. 2022 SUV ICE vehiclesproblemMore than 1GtCO2, far exceeding the 80 metric tons net emissions reduction from the EV fleet that year. The batteries of pure electric SUVs are typically two to three times larger than those of small cars and require more key minerals. However, electric SUVs contributed to the consumption of more than 150,000 barrels of oil per day last year and prevented tailpipe emissions associated with burning fuel in internal combustion engines.
The electric vehicle market is increasingly competitive.An increasing number of new entrants, mainly from China but also from other developing markets, are offering more affordable models. The major established automakers are also raising their ambitions, particularly in Europe, with another big set of EV announcements in 2022-23: all-electric fleets, cheaper cars, more investment and partnerships with battery manufacturers. Vertical integration with key minerals.
Consumers can choose from a growing number of electric vehicle options.The number of EV models available in 2022 will reach 500, more than double the number of options available in 2018. However, outside of China, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) must offer affordable and competitively priced options to enable mass adoption of electric vehicles. The number of EV models available today is still significantly less than the number of ICE models on the market, but the number of ICE models available has steadily declined since its peak in the mid-2010s.
The electrification of road transport is not limited to cars.Two- or three-wheeled vehicles are the most electrified segment today; they outnumbered automobiles in emerging markets and developing economies. More than half of registered three-wheelers in India will be electric by 2022, indicating their growing popularity due to government incentives and lower life-cycle costs compared to conventional models, especially amid rising fuel prices. In many developing economies, two- and three-wheeled vehicles provide an affordable form of mobility, which means that their electrification is important to support sustainable development.
Commercial vehicle stocks are also increasing electrificationGlobal sales of electric light commercial vehicles (LCVs) will increase by more than 90% to more than 310,000 units by 2022, even as overall LCV sales fall nearly 15%. In 2022, about 66,000 electric buses and 60,000 heavy and medium trucks will be sold worldwide, accounting for about 4.5% of bus sales and 1.2% of truck sales. . Where the government has committed to reducing emissions from public transport, such as densely populated urban areas, the share of electric bus sales is higher; in Finland, for example, electric bus sales exceed 65% in 2022.
Ambition to electrify heavy vehicles growsBy 2022, around 220 heavy-duty electric models will enter the market, bringing the total number of models offered by more than 100 original equipment manufacturers to more than 800 models. A total of 27 governmentsCommitment to 100% ZEV sales of passenger cars and trucks until 2040The United States and the European Union have also proposed stricter emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles.
Rising demand for electric vehicles is fueling demand for batteries and related critical minerals.Demand for lithium-ion (Li-ion) automotive batteries will increase by about 65% from about 330 GWh in 2021 to 550 GWh in 2022, primarily due to increased sales of electric passenger vehicles. About 60% of the demand for lithium, 30% cobalt and 10% nickel by 2022 will go into batteries for electric vehicles. Just five years ago, these shares were around 15%, 10% and 2%, respectively. Reducing the demand for critical materials is important for the sustainability, resilience and security of supply chains, especially given recent price movements for battery materials.
New alternatives to traditional lithium-ion are emergingThe share of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemicals is at an all-time high, largely thanks to China: around 95% of LFP batteries used in electric LDVs are used in vehicles made in China. A supply chain for sodium-ion (non-lithium) batteries is also being established, with more than 100 GWh of production capacity currently in operation or announced, almost all of it in China.
EV supply chains are expanding, but production is still highly concentrated in certain regions, and China is a major player in EV battery and component trade.In 2022, 35% of electric vehicle exports will come from China, up from 25% in 2021. Europe is China's largest trading partner for electric vehicles and their batteries. The share of electric vehicles produced in China and sold on the European market rises to 16% by 2022 from around 11% in 2021.
EV supply chains are increasingly at the forefront of EV policy development to build resilience through diversification.The EU Net Zero Industry Law, introduced in March 2023, aims to enable EU battery manufacturers to meet nearly 90% of the bloc's annual battery needs, with a production capacity of at minus 550 GWh by 2030. Similarly, India aims to boost domestic production of electric vehicles and batteries through the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme. In the United States, the Low Inflation Act emphasizes strengthening domestic supply chains for electric vehicles, electric vehicle batteries, and battery minerals, which are listed in the criteria to qualify for the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit. As a result, between August 2022 and March 2023, major EV and battery manufacturers announced cumulative post-IRA investments in the North American EV supply chain of at least $52 billion, 50% of which went into battery manufacturing, each about $52 billion. 20% goes to battery components and production of electric vehicles.
Following electric vehicle plan
FAQs
What is the electric vehicle market outlook for 2023? ›
We currently expect to see 14 million in sales by the end of 2023, representing a 35% year-on-year increase with new purchases accelerating in the second half of this year. As a result, electric cars could account for 18% of total car sales across the full calendar year.
What is the IEA electric car outlook? ›The new edition of the IEA's annual Global Electric Vehicle Outlook shows that more than 10 million electric cars were sold worldwide in 2022 and that sales are expected to grow by another 35% this year to reach 14 million.
What is the summary of electric vehicle? ›This vehicle has no internal combustion engine and is powered only by the battery and electric motor. BEVs don't use gasoline and are only charged by EVSE. A BEV has the largest battery of all the vehicle types. It's also the most energy efficient and produces zero tailpipe emissions.
What is the global impact of EV? ›The environmental impact of EVs
Altogether EVs consumed approximately 110 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2022, doubling from the previous year. In the future, EVs are projected to account for less than 4% of global electricity consumption by 2030.
Future Prices Over Time
We are at about $138 per kWh of EV batteries right now, and there was a brief rise in price from 2021 to 2023 due to supply chain shortages. These prices are going to go down from here, though.
This represents a 35% increase in electric car sales in 2023 compared to 2022 and would bring the global electric sales share to around 18%, up from 14% in 2022. Electric car sales in the first three months of 2023 have shown strong signs of growth compared to the same period in 2022.
What is the IEA energy Outlook for 2023? ›We estimate that around USD 2.8 trillion will be invested in energy in 2023. More than USD 1.7 trillion is going to clean energy, including renewable power, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emission fuels, efficiency improvements and end-use renewables and electrification.
What is the IEA predicting about renewables? ›Forecast summary
Global renewable capacity is expected to increase by almost 2 400 GW (almost 75%) between 2022 and 2027 in the IEA main-case forecast, equal to the entire installed power capacity of the People's Republic of China (hereafter “China”).
Over 2022-2027, renewables are seen growing by almost 2 400 GW in our main forecast, equal to the entire installed power capacity of China today. That's an 85% acceleration from the previous five years, and almost 30% higher than what was forecast in last year's report, making it our largest ever upward revision.
What are 3 disadvantages to an electric car? ›- Finding a Charging station - EV charging stations are fewer and further between than gas stations.
- Charging takes longer.
- The driving range on a full charge.
- Higher Initial Purchase Cost.
- Replacing the Batteries is Expensive.
What are 3 facts about electric cars? ›
- The first electric automobile was produced in the United Kingdom in 1884.
- Globally, 10 million electric vehicles are in operation.
- Tesla is the most well-known maker of electric vehicles.
- An electric vehicle may use up to 80% of its battery capacity.
The main components of electric vehicles are : Traction battery pack. DC-DC Converter. Electric motor.
What is the biggest EV problem? ›Battery issues, climate control, and in-car electronics are among the biggest problems in electric vehicles.
What is the main advantage of EV? ›Electric vehicles use electricity to charge their batteries instead of using fossil fuels like petrol or diesel. Electric vehicles are more efficient, and that combined with the electricity cost means that charging an electric vehicle is cheaper than filling petrol or diesel for your travel requirements.
What are the four factors that influence EV energy usage the most? ›- 1. ) Speed. Unlike internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, EVs fare much better in city driving. ...
- 2.) Weather. ...
- 3.) Charge Capacity. ...
- 4.) Battery Age. ...
- Sources. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) - Explaining Electric & Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles.
The good news is that the explosion of EV offerings in 2023 should allow for some choice, as well as bolstering supply for the oncoming demand. Despite low sales so far, the coming years should see an uptick in EV adoption as long as prices don't outstrip cost savings over fuel-powered vehicles.
Will electric vehicles replace gas? ›For those reasons, even as more electric vehicles and hybrid-electric vehicles merge onto our roads, the internal-combustion engine will continue to dominate for decades to come. Beyond 2050 the details are anyone's guess when it comes to predicting if electric cars will replace gas.
How many years will an EV last? ›Generally, electric vehicle batteries last 10-20 years, but some factors may reduce their lifespan. For instance, batteries may degrade faster in hotter climates as heat does not pair well with EVs.
Is EV charging cheaper than gas? ›In general, charging an EV is about 3 times cheaper per mile than the cost of fueling a gas-powered car. Based on driving a compact sedan, you will pay approximately $0.05 per mile to charge your EV compared to $0.14 to fuel your gas-powered car.
Will gas prices go down with more electric cars? ›This dispels one misconception I had – that EV's would lower gasoline prices. They will eventually, but refiners are prepared. Strong gasoline prices will aid the economics of electrification as well as turnover to more efficient conventional vehicles.
Is EV more expensive than gas? ›
Electric vehicles have a higher sticker price than traditional gasoline-powered cars, on average. But EVs may be a better financial deal for consumers over the long haul. That's because maintenance, repair and fuel costs tend to be lower than those for gas cars.
What is the electricity demand in 2023? ›EIA projected that electricity demand is on track to slide to 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023 from a historic high of 4,048 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2022, before rising to 4,062 billion kWh in 2024 as economic growth ramps up.
Will energy do well in 2023? ›Notably, FactSet predicts this industry group could post 46% year-over-year growth in earnings in 2023, despite the broader sector's expected decline. In sum, limited supply could offset falling demand to help keep commodity prices elevated.
What is the renewable energy trend in 2023? ›S&P Global expects the world to add up to 380 GW of clean energy this year, representing 75% of all new capacity in 2023. This will make 2023 a record year for clean energy additions.
What are the IEA emission factors? ›What is the IEA Emission factors database? The IEA Emission factors database contains emission factors from electricity and electricity/heat generation of national grids, for a set of three different gases (CO2, CH4, N2O), for all countries globally, starting in 1971.
What is the world primary energy supply by source IEA? ›Total primary energy supply by region, 1971 and 2019
In 2019, renewables provided almost 27% of global electricity, three points more than natural gas (24%). The share of nuclear has plateaued around 10% for eight years, while oil provided less than 3% of global electricity in 2019.
The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) is a normative IEA scenario that shows a pathway for the global energy sector to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, with advanced economies reaching net zero emissions in advance of others.
What is the conclusion of renewable energy? ›Renewable energy supplies reduce the emission of greenhouse gases significantly if replaced with fossil fuels. Since renewable energy supplies are obtained naturally from ongoing flows of energy in our surroundings, it should be sustainable.
What is the new policies scenario for IEA? ›In the IEA New Policies Scenario, China's coal demand will increase by 30% to over 2850 million tonnes per year by 2020 and stabilize above 2800 million tonnes until 2035 (Figure 1.8).
What does IEA mean in energy? ›IEA – International Energy Agency.
What is the downfall of electric cars? ›
| Pros of electric cars | Cons of electric cars |
|---|---|
| Electric cars are energy efficient | Electric cars can't travel as far |
| Electric cars reduce emissions | "Fueling" takes longer |
| Electric cars require lower maintenance | Electric cars are sometimes more expensive |
The data at this time is limited, as only a small number of EV models have been on the market long enough to warrant a battery replacement. On average, you can expect the replacement cost of an electric car's battery to run from $5,000 to upward of $15,000, according to an article from Consumer Reports.
Why gas cars are better than electric? ›Gas cars are cheaper compared to fuel than electric cars. Electricity is usually more expensive than gasoline, which means that it will cost you more per mile, so gas-powered cars offer better value for money in the long run.
What are 4 pros of electric vehicles? ›- No fuel required so you save money on gas. ...
- Environmental friendly as they do not emit pollutants. ...
- Lower maintenance due to an efficient electric motor. ...
- Better Performance.
Electricity Sources and Fuel-Cycle Emissions
All-electric vehicles and PHEVs running only on electricity have zero tailpipe emissions, but electricity production, such as power plants, may generate emissions.
The electric traction motor is the main component of an electric vehicle. The motor converts electrical energy into kinetic energy. This energy rotates the wheels. An electric motor is the main component that differentiates an electric car from a conventional car.
Does cold weather affect electric cars? ›Estimates vary, but according to a study from AAA, EVs can lose about 40% of their range when the temperature drops from 75 degrees to 20 degrees Fahrenheit.
What are the major issue in electric vehicles? ›Battery issues
Batteries are one of the most important components of an EV and they can sometimes experience problems such as reduced capacity or failure. Batteries can fail due to age, overuse, or even weather conditions.
The most common reasons drivers avoid EVs include: fear the battery will run out of charge before reaching their destination, also known as “range anxiety;” fear of too few charging stations, long charge times, and initial higher upfront vehicle costs.
Who will benefit most from EV? ›- Battery Providers.
- Transport.
- Utility Providers.
- Ecommerce.
- Delivery.
- EV Manufacturers.
How long do electric car batteries last? ›
Most manufacturers have a five to eight-year warranty on their battery. However, the current prediction is that an electric car battery will last from 10 – 20 years before they need to be replaced.
What are the disadvantages of electric cars on the environment? ›Making electric cars creates more emissions
The raw materials for making the car have to be mined, and the process of mining creates a lot of greenhouse gases. Then the raw materials have to be refined before they can be used, which again emits more greenhouse gas.
Studies show it all boils down to three things: availability, reliability, and convenience. Range anxiety is a critical factor for people who consider buying an EV.
At what speed is an EV most efficient? ›Electric cars are most efficient when driven at around 50-60mph. If you want to boost your EV's range, stick within this speed bracket. This isn't always possible, especially when driving on the motorway, but the Department of Energy says you'll use 14% less energy by driving 10mph slower than usual.
What factors can hinder electric cars? ›- Charging Infrastructure.
- EV Performance.
- EV Availability.
- EV Affordability.
When will the change happen? According to researchers based at Pittsburgh's Carnegie Mellon University, electric car battery prices will probably fall to the desired range (under $100 per kilowatt-hour) by 2023, 2024, or 2025. Many auto industry gurus are convinced that it will happen by 2025.
How are EV sales in 2023? ›The International Energy Agency expects over 14 million EVs to be sold globally in 2023, which would account for about 18 percent of total car sales for the full year, as reported by CNET. The figure would represent a 35 percent increase year over year, accounting for as much as 18 percent of total car sales in 2023.
What is the projection for Electric Vehicles in 2025? ›Electric-vehicle sales should top $50 billion in 2025, GM said. The Detroit-based company plans to build 400,000 EVs in North America from 2022 through the first half of 2024. Production capacity will reach 1 million units annually in North America in 2025.
Is it better to buy a hybrid or electric car in 2023? ›Verdict – Hybrids are much cheaper
Unsurprisingly, hybrid cars are on average much cheaper to buy, lease, and maintain, but they will cost you a little more in annual fuel costs. As more and more companies adopt electric vehicles at scale, we should see these prices fall.
Americans planning to shop for a new car in 2023 might find slightly better prices than during the past two years, though auto industry analysts say it is likely better to wait until the fall. Since mid-2021, car buyers have been frustrated by rising prices, skimpy selection and long waits for deliveries.
Will an EV last 15 years? ›
Of the EVs like some Tesla models and the Nissan Leaf that have been around for more than eight years, very few of the batteries have been replaced, implying that the lifetime of an EV battery, with proper care, could be more than ten and perhaps as much as 20 years.
Why aren t people buying EVs? ›High purchase price and lack of charging stations were the most-cited reasons for not wanting an EV, followed by limited driving range and time required to charge.
Does EV have a future? ›By 2025, electric vehicle sales could comprise up to 20% of new car sales. By 2030, electric vehicle sales could reach 40% of new car sales. By 2040, electric vehicle sales could account for nearly all new car sales.
What percentage of cars will be EV by 2030? ›In its 2021 outlook, the IEA said electric cars would reach 15% of sales by 2030, a level nearly reached already in 2022.
What will EV market be worth in 2030? ›Global Electric Vehicle Market is valued at USD 193.55 Billion in 2022 and is projected to reach a value of USD 693.70 Billion by 2030 at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 17.30% over the forecast period.
What percentage of US vehicles will be EV by 2025? ›Bloomberg NEF projects that plug-in vehicle sales will rise from 6.6 million in 2021 to 20.6 million in 2025. Plug-in vehicles are predicted to make up 23% of new passenger vehicle sales globally in 2025, up from just under 10% in 2021. Three-quarters of those will be fully electric.
What are EV owners looking for? ›“Today's EV owners are looking for quality, reliability, driving enjoyment, safety and technology features," said Brent Gruber, executive director of the EV practice at J.D. Power, in a news release.