Executive Summary - Renewable Energy Market Update - June 2023 - Analysis - AIE (2023)


executive Summary
  • executive Summary
  • How much money are European consumers saving thanks to renewable energy?
  • To what extent will renewable energy reduce gas consumption in European buildings?
  • Are market forces taking political action as the driving force behind wind and solar PV?
  • Will solar PV and wind costs finally start to fall again in 2023 and 2024?
  • Will increased wind and solar PV capacity lead to further reductions in production?
  • Is the global production of wind and solar photovoltaic energy sufficient to reach the goal of net zero emissions by 2030?
  • Will energy security concerns drive biofuel growth in 2023 and 2024?

dating report

International Energy Agency (2023),Renewables Market Update: June 2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023, License: CC BY 4.0

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Renewable Energy Market Update - June 2023 Renewable Energy Market Update - June 2023

executive Summary

Global renewable capacity additions will increase by 107 gigawatts (GW) by 2023, the largest absolute increase on record to over 440 GW.This is more than the combined installed capacity of Germany and Spain. This unprecedented growth has been fueled by growing political support, rising concerns about energy security, and growing competitiveness against fossil fuel alternatives. These factors more than offset the impact of higher interest rates, higher investment costs, and ongoing supply chain challenges.

Solar PV capacity, including large utilities and small distributed systems, accounts for two-thirds of global renewable energy growth projected for this year..In response to rising electricity prices caused by the global energy crisis, policy makers in many countries (especially in Europe) are actively seeking alternatives to imported fossil fuels that can improve energy security. This shift in focus creates an enabling environment for solar PV systems, especially residential and commercial systems that can be quickly installed to meet the growing demand for renewable energy. These smaller distributed PV applications are expected to account for half of total solar PV deployments this year, more than total onshore wind deployments during the same period.

After two consecutive years of decline, onshore wind capacity is expected to recover 70% by 2023 to reach a record 107 GWThis was mainly due to delays in the start-up of the project in China following last year's restrictions due to Covid-19. Expansion in Europe and the US is also expected to accelerate as supply chain challenges delay project start-up from 2022 to 2023. On the other hand, due to the reduced number of projects under construction outside from China.

Net increase in renewable energy production capacity by technology 2017-2024

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The number of new solar PV installations will continue to increase until 2024, while the deployment of wind power remains a challenge.Falling module prices, widespread adoption of distributed PV solar systems, and political pressure for mass deployment are driving higher annual incremental solar growth in all major markets, including China, the European Union, the United States, and India. By contrast, global onshore wind power is projected to decline by around 5% in 2024 compared to 2023 if policies are not implemented quickly. Although new wind farms in China will continue to increase in 2024, they will be offset by undersubscribed auctions and permit delays in Europe. The situation in Europe is expected to improve when the new law is implemented. Overall, cumulative global renewable energy capacity is expected to exceed 4,500 GW by the end of 2024, equivalent to the combined installed capacity of China and the United States.

In our accelerated case, the increase in global renewable capacity could reach 550 GW by 2024, almost 20% more than leading forecasts.This is mainly due to faster deployment of residential and commercial PV installations, assuming faster policy implementation and short-term incentives. The benefits of onshore wind and solar PV projects depend primarily on the speed of permitting, construction, and timely grid connection of projects under development.

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The crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine accelerates the introduction of renewable energies in the EU, prompting the EU to urgently reduce its dependence on Russian gas imports. Policy measures in many European countries have led us to increase our forecasts for additional renewable energy capacity in the EU for 2023 and 2024 by 40% compared to pre-war levels. The rapid growth of distributed solar PV is the main reason for the more optimistic outlook, which accounts for almost three-quarters of the EU forecast revisions. This is due to high electricity prices making solar PV more financially attractive, as well as increasing supportive policies in key EU markets, in particular Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.

Increase in EU capacity in 2023-2024

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European countries have introduced more policy and regulatory changes to facilitate licensing in the last 18 months than in the last decade.While licensing has become a key policy priority to accelerate the large-scale deployment of wind and solar PV in Europe, and the first benefits are starting to emerge, the proposed policy changes Compared to other drivers, such as small residential and commercial solar PV, the expected impact on renewable energy use in 2023 and 2024 is limited.

Electricity consumers in the EU will save around 100 billion euros in the period 2021-2023 thanks to new photovoltaic solar installations and wind farmsStarting in 2021, Europe accelerated the deployment of renewable energy, mitigating the economic impact of the energy crisis. Low-cost photovoltaics from wind and solar power are expected to replace around 230 terawatt-hours (TWh) of expensive fossil fuel generation between 2021 and 2023, helping to lower wholesale electricity prices across the board. European markets. Without this additional capacity, average wholesale electricity prices in the EU would increase by 8% in 2022, hurting consumers, businesses and government budgets.

Renewable energy could help Europe replace more natural gas for heating buildings next winter.Last year was Europe's second-warmest winter, helping the bloc use less natural gas to heat buildings. The growth of renewable sources such as clean electricity, bioenergy boilers, heat pumps, solar thermal and geothermal is expected to replace nearly 800 million cubic meters of EU natural gas consumption associated with buildings. annually by 2023 and more than 1.7 billion cubic meters by 2024. This would represent a significant contribution to meet the growing demand for gas if, in the period 2023-2024, harsher winters and warmer summers occur.

China's contribution to increasing global renewable energy capacity is expected to increase in 2023 and 2024, cementing its position as the undisputed leader in global deployment.By 2022, China will account for nearly half of the world's new installed renewable energy capacity. The country's share will expand to a record 55% of global annual renewable energy use by 2024. By 2024, China will supply nearly 70% of the world's new offshore wind projects, as well as more than 60% of wind projects. terrestrial and 50% of photovoltaic solar energy projects.

Net increase in solar PV capacity by country in 2022-2024

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Net increase in onshore wind capacity by country or region 2022-2024

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In the US, capacity additions will recover this year after a difficult 2022The US market for wind and solar PV contracted last year due to restrictive trade measures and supply chain constraints, but the two technologies will grow by around 40% annually through 2023, with solar PV setting a new record. Current projections are supported by existing tax incentives, while the Inflation Reduction Act will be fully operational after 2024. Provide unprecedented security for renewable energy projects until 2032.

New additions of renewable capacity in India are expected to pick up again in 2023 and 2024 due to faster deployment of distributed solar PV, hydro and onshore wind.However, large-scale solar PV projects, the fastest growing segment of renewable electricity in India, are expected to slow briefly this year due to supply chain challenges, lower auction volumes and trade policy. While large-scale PV production is emerging in India, import tariffs are creating a short-term supply-demand mismatch.

Electricity costs for new onshore wind and solar PV are expected to fall by 2024, but could still be 10-15% higher than pre-pandemic levels. In most markets outside of China.Regardless, solar PV and onshore wind remain the cheapest options for new electricity generation in most countries. Future electricity contracts in the EU, US, Japan, Australia and India by the end of 2023 and 2024 point to wholesale electricity prices two to three times higher than the average in 2020. Today, plants Wind and solar PV can provide electricity at prices 30-50% lower than future electricity contract prices in most major markets, making renewable energy more attractive to investors.

Political uncertainty and price volatility leave a sixth of renewable energy auction volume unallocated in 2022.A competitive auction for renewable energy sources leads to the allocation of a record capacity of 100 GW. However, 20 GW remained unallocated, an all-time high, with two-thirds in Europe. The design of government auctions should take into account recent inflation, rising interest rates, and volatility in commodity prices, and provide dynamic indexing methods to attract investment.

Unallocated auction capacity by region 2019-2022

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Results of the global renewable energy auction 2019-2022

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Driven by corporate power purchase agreements, market-driven purchasing is expected to contribute about one-fifth of wind and solar PV capacity expansion in 2023 and 2024.The United States leads the expansion of corporate PPAs, followed by Brazil, Australia, Spain and Sweden. The agreements are motivated by the economic attractiveness of renewable energy, the possibility of protection against the increase and instability of electricity prices and sustainability objectives.

The financial health of the renewable energy value chain is essential for the sustainable growth of the industryDespite the challenges posed by volatile commodity prices, rising interest rates, supply chain constraints, and trade measures, the renewable energy sector in general has shown financial resilience. However, there are significant differences between sectors and countries. The outlook for the solar PV manufacturing industry is positive as capacity grows, but potential oversupply and falling prices could squeeze companies' profit margins. Western wind producers face challenges due to high commodity prices and licensing and auction designs that do not reflect the changing financial environment. Although the energy crisis has also affected the profitability of some specific utilities, these companies have generally maintained their role as major investors in renewable energy.

Global solar PV generating capacity is expected to reach nearly 1,000 GW by 2024, enough to meet annual demand in the IEA's net-zero emissions scenario by 2050.By contrast, production of wind power equipment has been expanding more slowly and may struggle to keep up with demand growth through 2030. While China will continue to dominate global solar PV generation capacity, projects of announced solar PV generation in the US and India have doubled since December, suggesting that supply chains are diversifying in the medium term.

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Global wind energy production capacity by segments 2022-2025

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Global photovoltaic solar production capacity by segment 2015-2024

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The rapid expansion of wind and solar PV must be accompanied by policies and market rules that support infrastructure investment and grid flexibility.Wind and solar PV capacity growth is limited in many markets, especially where grid infrastructure and system planning lags behind the deployment of these variable renewables. However, production cuts remain relatively low, ranging from 1.5% to 4% in most major renewable energy markets. Several European countries, including Spain, Germany and Ireland, are expected to have an annual share of more than 40% of wind and solar PV by 2024, which will require effective grid management to contain the increasing rates of reduction.

Biofuels prevent the consumption of 2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2022, equivalent to 4% of global oil demand in the transportation sector.Argentina, India and Indonesia will accelerate the use of biofuels in 2022. However, despite the energy security benefits of biofuels, their prices have risen faster than gasoline and diesel in many countries. To mitigate the increase in transport fuel costs, Brazil, Sweden and Finland postponed planned increases in biofuel blending obligations in 2022.

Biofuel prices will fall in 2023 and 2024, while in Ukraine they will remain well above pre-war levels.Biofuel prices have fallen from their 2022 peaks in all major markets. In the first four months of 2023, ethanol prices fell between 7% and 16% compared to the 2022 average price, and biodiesel prices fell between 15% and 28% in all markets. Although below their 2022 peaks, prices of key biofuel feedstocks such as corn, sugar and vegetable oils are forecast to remain above pre-war levels, keeping biofuel prices low. at historically high levels through 2024.

Demand for biofuels will increase 11% by 2024 supported by existing policies aimed at energy security goals.Only Indonesia and Brazil are accelerating implementation by 2024. In advanced economies, new policies may not affect production until after 2024, as high prices, raw material issues, and technology constraints limit potential of additional growth.

Biofuel demand growth by fuel and region in 2022-2024

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Following How much money are European consumers saving thanks to renewable energy?


What is the renewable energy industry outlook for 2023? ›

The renewable energy industry is ready for takeoff

Growing demand in 2023 could exacerbate supply chain constraints and interconnection bottlenecks, further boosting prices and extending project timelines. Also, transmission limitations could continue to hamper growth until capacity is significantly expanded.

What is the summary of renewable energy? ›

Renewable energy is energy produced from sources like the sun and wind that are naturally replenished and do not run out. Renewable energy can be used for electricity generation, space and water heating and cooling, and transportation.

What is the renewables outlook for the IEA? ›

The supply of renewable energy needs to continue expanding by about 13% annually over 2022-2030 to align with the Net Zero Scenario.

What is the industry analysis of renewable energy? ›

The global renewable energy market was valued at $881.7billion in 2020, and is projected to reach $1,977.6 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 8.4% from 2021 to 2030. Renewable energy, even referred as clean energy, is usually derived from natural sources that are constantly replenished.

What are the renewable energy trends in 2023? ›

Arguably, the most exciting energy trends in 2023 will be the growing integration of AI and Big Data in the energy industry and the development of green hydrogen energy. Big Data and AI can potentially revolutionize energy efficiency across the board.

What are the energy industry trends for 2023? ›

In the EIA's 2023 forecast, the increase in U.S. electricity generation comes almost entirely from solar and wind. The EIA expects renewable sources will supply 24 percent of U.S. generation in 2023, up from 22 percent in 2022 and 20 percent in 2021.

What are the 7 main sources of renewable energy? ›

The most popular renewable energy sources currently are:
  • Solar energy.
  • Wind energy.
  • Hydro energy.
  • Tidal energy.
  • Geothermal energy.
  • Biomass energy.

What is the conclusion of renewable energy? ›

Renewable energy supplies reduce the emission of greenhouse gases significantly if replaced with fossil fuels. Since renewable energy supplies are obtained naturally from ongoing flows of energy in our surroundings, it should be sustainable.

What is the difference between green energy and renewable energy? ›

Green energy = sources from nature. Renewable energy = recyclable sources.

What is the largest source of renewable energy in the world? ›

Hydropower currently is the largest source of renewable energy in the electricity sector. It relies on generally stable rainfall patterns, and can be negatively impacted by climate-induced droughts or changes to ecosystems which impact rainfall patterns.

What are the current trends in renewable energy? ›

Renewable energy has become increasingly important as more people have concerns about climate change. Trends across the industry include domestic production and the growing importance of storage. Production capacity is set to continue accelerating over the next few years.

What is the cheapest renewable energy? ›

According to the IEA's World Energy Outlook and other research projects, solar and wind energy have continued to occupy the top spots in terms of the cheapest renewable energy sources. Both energy sources cost significantly less than fossil fuel alternatives and continue to become more affordable every year.

What is the renewable energy industry value chain? ›

The Energy Value Chain

Renewable energy technologies convert those source of primary energy such as wind and solar to energy forms that humans can readily use, including heat and electricity. There are numerous ways to convert primary energy forms into consumable forms of energy.

What is the market value of renewable energy? ›

Global Renewable Energy Market is valued at USD 988.26 Billion in 2022 and is projected to reach a value of USD 1912.12 Billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 8.60% over the forecast period.

What is Pestel analysis for renewable energy? ›

A PESTLE analysis is a framework or tool used to analyse and monitor the macro-environmental factors that have an impact on an organisation or sector. The draft policy paper has identified common barriers to community energy projects; this analysis is specific to each of the LECo regions.

Which renewable energy is the best for the future? ›

What is the Best Renewable Energy Source?
  1. Nuclear Energy.
  2. Hydroelectric Energy. ...
  3. Wind Energy. ...
  4. Biomass Energy. ...
  5. Geothermal Energy. ...
  6. Solar Energy. ...
  7. Wave Energy. Wave energy is a type of energy that uses the movement of the ocean's waves to generate electricity. ...

What is the most promising energy technology? ›

The production of green hydrogen through electrolysis powered by renewable energy sources like solar and wind offers a promising solution for long-term energy storage. Hydrogen produced from this process can be stored and converted back to electricity when needed, providing balancing power for the grid.

What is the target for renewable energy 2025? ›

India plans to add 76 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar and wind power by 2025 which could save up to $19.5 billion a year (over 15 lakh crore) caused due to the burning of coal, according to the latest research by Global Energy Monitor.

Will energy prices go down in 2023 usa? ›

The average electricity bill for households in the U.S. rose from $0.147 kWh in January 2022 to $0.168 per kWh in January 2023. Energy prices aren't likely to decrease, but the rapid increase from 2021 to 2022 may slow in 2023.

Will the energy sector do well in 2023? ›

U.S. natural gas production is currently at a record high, and continues to ramp up. We will almost certainly set a new record annual production high in 2023. Growing natural gas supplies will help offset the shortfalls being experienced by European countries that typically get natural gas from Russia.

Will energy do well in 2023? ›

Notably, FactSet predicts this industry group could post 46% year-over-year growth in earnings in 2023, despite the broader sector's expected decline. In sum, limited supply could offset falling demand to help keep commodity prices elevated.

What are the top 3 sources of renewable energy? ›

The major types or sources of renewable energy are: Solar energy from the sun. Geothermal energy from heat inside the earth. Wind energy.

What is the cleanest energy source? ›

Nuclear is a zero-emission clean energy source. It generates power through fission, which is the process of splitting uranium atoms to produce energy. The heat released by fission is used to create steam that spins a turbine to generate electricity without the harmful byproducts emitted by fossil fuels.

What is the most efficient energy source? ›

Nuclear Has The Highest Capacity Factor

As you can see, nuclear energy has by far the highest capacity facto r of any other energy source. This basically means nuclear power plants are producing maximum power more than 92% of the time during the year.

What is the biggest benefit of renewable energy? ›

Benefits of Renewable Energy
  • Generating energy that produces no greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and reduces some types of air pollution.
  • Diversifying energy supply and reducing dependence on imported fuels.
  • Creating economic development and jobs in manufacturing, installation, and more.
Mar 30, 2023

What are the arguments against renewable energy? ›

Opponents of alternative energy argue that there is a much higher upfront cost, the sun and wind are intermittent sources of energy and we do not yet have storage capabilities, so backup energies will be required, and there are geographic limitations, including environmental factors, that could prevent building big ...

Which is more beneficial green energy or renewable energy? ›

Green Energy – The Greatest Environmental Benefit

Green energy is a subset of renewable energy and represents generation sources with the smallest environmental footprint – such as sunlight, wind, heat, and water.

Is renewable energy the same as sustainable energy? ›

Simply put, renewable energy is energy that is created and replenished naturally. Sustainable energy, on the other hand, is energy that reliably meets both the short- and long-term needs of a society. Sustainable energy maintains the natural environment.

What renewable energy is not clean? ›

Both hydropower and biomass are renewable energy sources because they are replenishable. They are not clean though because greenhouse gases are emitted during energy generation.

Which country consumes 100% renewable energy? ›

Iceland is a country running on 100% renewable energy. It gets 75% of the electricity from hydropower, and 25% from geothermal. The country then takes advantage of its volcanic activity to access geothermal energy, with 87% of its hot water and heating coming from this source.

Which state has the cleanest energy? ›

A color-coded map of the United States, with each state colored according to the percentage of in-state electricity generation that comes from renewable sources. South Dakota has the most generation from renewables, at 83% in 2021. Vermont, Washington, and Idaho are ranked second, third, and forth.

Where does the US rank in renewable energy? ›

Renewable energy capacity 2022 by country. The leading countries for installed renewable energy in 2022 were China, the U.S., and Brazil. China was the leader in renewable energy installations, with a capacity of around 1,161 gigawatts. The U.S., in second place, had a capacity of around 352 gigawatts.

What is the most attractive renewable energy market? ›

Having led EY's renewable energy ranking for years, the United States once again retains its top position – for a large part due to the Inflation Reduction Act passed in August 2022, which is viewed as a game changer for the country's green hydrogen industry.

What is the fastest growing form of renewable energy? ›

Wind and solar are the fastest growing renewable sources, but contribute just 5% of total energy used in the U.S.

What is the next big energy source? ›

Renewables to overtake coal and become world's biggest source of electricity generation by 2025, IEA says. “Renewables [will] become the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025, surpassing coal,” the IEA said in its Renewables 2022 report.

Is it cheaper to use fossil fuels or renewable energy? ›

Green energy is cheaper than fossil fuels, a new study finds.

Which is cheaper nuclear or solar? ›

Solar & Wind Compared to Nuclear Energy

An analysis of the levelized costs of energy {LCOE) by Lazard investment bank indicates that wind and solar energy are five times cheaper than nuclear.

What is the least harmful renewable energy? ›

Hydroelectric power is a renewable energy source that is considered one of the least harmful to the environment. This source generates electricity by harnessing the force of moving water, making it a clean, sustainable, and efficient way to generate electricity without producing greenhouse gas emissions.

Who is the largest purchaser of renewable energy? ›

In 2022, Amazon bought 10.9 gigawatts of clean power, making it the largest corporate buyer of renewable power in the world, according to data from the market research company BloombergNEF. That's enough energy to power the entire country of Ecuador.

Who is the largest investor in renewable energy? ›

Chinese investment in clean energy is the highest worldwide. In 2019, China pumped some 83.4 billion U.S. dollars into clean energy research and development. The United States and Japan had the second and third highest clean energy investments that year, at 55.5 billion and 16.5 billion U.S. dollars, respectively.

Who are the largest renewable energy asset owners? ›

The report identifies the top five owners of utility PV assets as: American IPPs BHE Renewables, NextEra Energy Resources and ConEdison Development; German IPP Enerparc; and British investor Octopus Investments.

Is renewable energy a good long term investment? ›

Clean energy stocks tend to be more stable than traditional stocks, but the market can still fluctuate. By paying attention to the market, you can help ensure that you're making wise investment choices. If you're looking for a more future-conscious way of investing, renewable energy stocks are a great option.

Is it worth investing in renewable energy? ›

Financial Gain: Make some green while investing in green

Over 10 years, renewable energy outperformed fossil fuel, generating returns of 192.3% compared to 97.2%. In the past 5 years, the renewable energy investment continued to yield higher returns in addition to being less volatile than the fossil fuel portfolio.

Are the prices of renewable energy rising or dropping? ›

Amid the energy crises that have rippled out from beyond the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there's a spot of good news: the costs of renewable energy continue to decline dramatically.

What is renewable energy analysis? ›

It is expected that by 2040, around 49% of the total electricity will be generated by renewable energy as more efficient batteries will be used to store electricity, which will further cut the solar energy cost by 66% as compared to the current cost. Use of renewables in place of coal will save India Rs.

What are the six environmental factors of the PESTEL analysis? ›

PESTEL is an anagram, meaning it is a word that created by using parts of other words. In particular, PESTEL reflects the names of the six segments of the general environment: (1) political, (2) economic, (3) social, (4) technological, (5) environmental, and (6) legal.

What are the 6 macro environmental factors in PESTEL analysis? ›

A PESTLE analysis is a tool used to gain a macro picture of an industry environment. PESTLE stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental factors.

What is the renewable energy market outlook for 2030? ›

Global Renewable Energy Market is valued at USD 988.26 Billion in 2022 and is projected to reach a value of USD 1912.12 Billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 8.60% over the forecast period.


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