Goldman Sachs | Outlook 2023 (2023)

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Goldman Sachs | Outlook 2023 (5)

Shape your outlook for the coming year with insights from Goldman Sachs economists and strategists. Over the next few weeks, we'll be compiling our outlook, which will include expectations for economic growth, unemployment, interest rates, and more, giving you an idea of ​​the trends likely to shape the global economy and markets in 2023.

What allows the United States to avoid a recession in 2023? Our chief economist, Jan Hatzius, says there are two opposing forces at play, one positive and one negative, and the positive should be stronger.

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Key analysis of this year's outlook.

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What are the economic and market prospects for 2023?

Jan Hatzius, head of research at Goldman Sachs and the firm's chief economist, and Dominic Wilson, senior adviser at the Global Markets Research Group, explain why they believe the US can avoid recession and how the economic outlook could improve in Europe and China in 2023.


Why the dollar may have passed its peak?

Kamakshya Trivedi, head of currency, exchange rates and emerging markets strategy at Goldman Sachs Research, said the dollar could rise against other major currencies in 2022, but there are growing signs the dollar has passed its peak.


Assets: Underinvested Super Cycle

Jeff Currie, global head of commodity research, explains why commodity markets will suffer from underinvestment in 2023.


Is it time to switch from stocks to bonds?

Senior bonds are starting to compete with stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Research's 2023 asset allocation outlook.


The bear market in the global stock market is expected to deepen in 2023

The bear market in shares is expected to intensify before giving way to positive signals later in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs Research.


Why America is on track to emerge from recession by 2023

The United States could have a soft landing next year: The world's largest economy is expected to narrowly avoid a recession as inflation eases and unemployment rises slightly, according to Goldman Sachs research.

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Outlook 2023 - WARNING: Fog

2022 is a turbulent year. Stock markets fell sharply, interest rates rose at their fastest pace in decades, and commodity prices were volatile due to high inflation and geopolitical tensions. The investment strategy group within Goldman Sachs Wealth Management expects market volatility to subside in 2023, with inflation abating and major central banks reaching the end of their tightening cycles. However, investors still face a fog of uncertainty.

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Macro Outlook 2023: This cycle is different

Global growth slows in 2022 due to slow reopening, fiscal and monetary tightening, China's covid-19 restrictions and falling property markets, and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Goldman Sachs Research analysts expect global growth of just 1.8% in 2023 as US resilience contrasts with a recession in Europe and a bumpy reopening in China.

Goldman Sachs Research

US Economic Outlook 2023: Approaching Soft Ground

The key macroeconomic question this year is whether superheated inflation can be reversed without a recession. An analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs Research suggests the answer is yes: a prolonged period of below-potential growth could gradually reverse the overheated labor market and reduce wage growth and ultimately inflation, providing a sustainable but challenging path to a soft landing.

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European Outlook 2023: Milder recession, higher terminal fees

Economists at Goldmans Sachs Research stuck to their long-standing position that the energy crisis will push the European economy into recession this winter, as surveys and production data indicate a sharp slowdown in energy-intensive industries and high inflation will reduce real household income. But now they see less of a decline as hard data remains surprisingly resilient, rebalancing in gas markets reduces the risk of energy rationalization, and governments provide substantial fiscal support.

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Asia Outlook: Outlook for 2023: Inflation Peaks and Growth Troughs

Economists at Goldman Sachs Research believe economic growth across much of Asia-Pacific is likely to be weak in 2023 as reopening stimulus fades, a slowdown in the global manufacturing cycle and past monetary tightening weigh on the economy. activity. As these headwinds recede and China begins to reopen, they expect growth to pick up again. While most of our economists' 2023 full GDP forecasts are slightly below consensus, they are more optimistic about growth in the second half of the year, especially in China.

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China's outlook for 2023: from winter to spring

After a very challenging 2022, economists at Goldman Sachs Research expect China's GDP growth to accelerate from 3.0% this year to 4.5% next year as the country is likely to emerge from a policy of zero covid infections, who believe the meeting begins soon after. "two" March. The reopening of China implies a strong recovery in consumption, stronger core inflation and a gradual normalization of cyclical policy in 2023.

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Japan Economic Outlook 2023: Focus on Wage Growth and Leadership Change at BOJ

While our Goldman Sachs Research economists expect Japan's real GDP growth to slow from 1.5% in 2022 to 1.3% in 2023, they expect growth to continue to exceed potential. Spending is likely to benefit directly from the reopening of the economy, and they also expect capital spending to hold firm due to reduced demand, demographics, and labor shortages due to the reopening and rebuilding of Supply Chain.

Goldman Sachs Research

Commodity Outlook 2023: Super sub-inversion cycle

Just as commodity markets were dominated by the dollar in 2022, analysts at Goldman Sachs expect 2023 to suffer from underinvestment.

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